The midterms are nearly upon us, and this is no fun for anybody. And before you get excited about a possible radical change in the US federal government, take a dose of reality, bud. Shit slides slowly. But, with luck, shit will slide the right way.
Quick refresher for those of you not knowledgeable about the US civic process: the legislature is a bicameral system, featuring the House (one representative per district, by population) and the Senate (two senators per state; this is the senior house). Senators are elected to six-year terms; representatives are elected to two-year terms. Hence, in these elections, 35 Senate seats and all House seats are up for grabs.
Unfortunately, the election cycle is not conducive to giving Trump the complete BTFO’ing he so desperately deserves. 23 Senate seats held by Dems are not up for reelection - compared to 42 on the GOP side. This is problematic - while the Dems are expected to pick up a seat or two in the Senate, it’s not looking so good for a majority.
The good news is that FiveThirtyEight (the most accurate and reputable election forecast besides the surprisingly spot-on proclamations of the infamous Carl “The Dig” Diggler, a creation of satirists Felix Biederman and Virgil Texas) … ok, sorry for the long parenthetical - FiveThirtyEight predicts about a 6 in 7 (85%) chance of Democrats taking a majority in the House. Sorry for the run-on, Charlie, I’m tired.
This is good news because this will be sufficient to produce two years of legislative deadlock. The unfortunate game of obstructionism must be played - Trump wants to bring back asbestos, forfuckssake. His administration is a trainwreck, obviously. He must be rendered impotent as quickly as possible; a Democratic house will yield this result.
Moreover, the House and Senate intelligence committees are currently controlled by Republicans, who so far have been primarily interested in covering Trump’s ass, rather than do any kind of serious oversight. In particular, Devin Nunes is a bastard who should be taken to the wall and shot for his abandonment of bipartisanship (he and ranking Democrat Adam Schiff had previously enjoyed a good working relationship).
This means that previous GOP obstruction of executive oversight, and, say, releasing details about the Mueller probe, will be counteracted. This, in turn, will help build momentum for the 2020 race.
Speaking of the 2020 race, candidates are angling for their runs now, though nobody will announce until next year. There are tells, though - and it looks like Sanders will run again. This time through, he’ll curb-stomp the establishment Dems (many are running, and they’ll split the field like the GOP did in 2016).
And the orange take on all this? Trump’s producing some hilariously spicy rhetoric because he’s shitting himself about the midterms. Have y’all seen that stuff about the Caravan? Watch out, there might be Middle Easterners in it. It’s definitely not just Hondurans who hope for better living conditions and shelter amidst the growing threat of fascism in South America (see Brazil).
It’s typical Trumpian rhetoric, and can obviously be waved off as hyperbolic racism. I hope he’s panicking right now. Come to think of it, he should be taken out and shot, too.