Can the BAFTAs be a good prediction for the Oscars?

Despite the rain on February 13th, Leicester Square was once again a buzzing night of flashbulbs and red carpet walks as it played host to the 63rd annual BAFTA awards. A semi-reliable predictor of which way the Oscars might swing, the BAFTAs has becoming an increasingly high profile event in the film world, injecting a bit of life and glamour into the British film scene and bringing big names to the capital. Julianne Moore, Jessica Alba and Mark Ruffalo, were among the Hollywood faces who turned up, but the big winners of the night were the cast and crew of the recent British hit, The King’s Speech.

A runaway winner, The King’s Speech took away seven awards, including Best Film, Best British Film, Best Original Screenplay, Best Leading Actor (for Colin Firth) and both of the Best Supporting awards for Helena Bonham-Carter and Geoffrey Rush. Whether or not this success will be repeated on the 27th of February at the Academy Awards remains to be seen. Though last year’s big winner, The Hurt Locker, took away Best Film and Best Director at both the BAFTAs and the Oscars, the idea of the Academy giving this many major awards to a British film seems unlikely.

It’s been a good year for cinema, and one that has left one of the most celebrated films of the year, Inception, going fairly unrecognised in awards season – it scooped a handful of BAFTAs but mainly technical awards (Best Sound, Best Production Design etc.). Up against four other films from a good year, it’s even more of an achievement that The King’s Speech beat Inception, The Social Network, True Grit and Black Swan to the title of Best Film.

The Social Network didn’t go completely unappreciated. David Fincher picked up Best Director for it, and it also got a nod in the Best Adapted Screenplay category, whilst Black Swan received recognition by way of Natalie Portman’s Best Leading Actress award.

A nice touch for British cinema was Chris Morris’ Best Debut win for Four Lions. Even though most Chris Morris fans will have known him for some time as the creator of Brass-Eye and Nathan Barley television series, it’s a well-deserved acknowledgement for one of the most talented filmmakers in Britain today. British actor Tom Hardy also went home with the Orange Rising Star Award, most likely for his breakthrough appearance in Inception, though his previous roles in British films Bronson and L4yer Cake have definitely made him worth of this award – definitely more worthy than last year’s winner Kristen “Twilight” Stewart.

So how good is this as a predictor of Oscars? It’d be a big surprise if The King’s Speech repeated this clean sweep on the 27th, and after winning Best Leading Actor last year for A Single Man, Colin Firth is unlikely to be awarded it again. Instead, The Social Network’s Jesse Eisenberg could be in with a better shot, with films like The Social Network and The Fighter likely to pick up more than they did at the BAFTAs. How the exact breakdown will be at the Academy Awards, however, is not clear-cut. The only sure-fire thing to put your money on is probably the Pixar failsafe option in the Best Animated Film category with Toy Story 3.