Words will not feed the world

Last month the United Nations’ global food price index hit its highest peak since its record began in 1990. In doing so it has raised fears of a return to the food crisis of 2008, when high prices sparked violent riots around the world.

So what is driving the current trends in food prices? There have been many causes, from droughts and fires in Russia to excess rains in North America and Australia. The impacts of poor harvests have been exacerbated by a government-imposed export ban in Russia, coupled with a rise in the use of food crops as biofuel in the US. A weakening of the US dollar, which underpins the prices of most globally traded commodities, as well as market speculation, have also been blamed for the soaring food prices.

Worryingly, the drivers behind the current trends show little signs of slowing, says the United Nations World Food Programme (UNWFP). And there is reason to fear that market speculation and “political overreaction” will continue to drive price volatility, admits Sgustafson from the Food Security Portal. Recent headlines will not help; on the 8th February UNFAO issued an alert as China, the world’s largest producer of wheat, suffered its worst drought in 60 years. With the affected area representing two thirds of the national wheat harvest, UNFAO has described the ongoing drought as “potentially a serious problem”.

These developments are critical for the world’s poorest nations. According to the World Bank, 920 million people worldwide already suffer from poverty and malnutrition. The Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDC), which are net importers of food, will be particularly affected by soaring international prices. There are currently 70 countries classified as LIFDC, such as Egypt and Mozambique, of which many lack sufficient foreign exchange to make up the shortfall from international markets. Clearly, volatility of global food prices will only serve to exacerbate existing issues of food security in these countries. According to Abbassian, these countries are “on the front line of the current surge in world prices”.

The instability in the global food market has already driven millions more vulnerable people into poverty. Indeed, earlier this week Robert B. Zoellick, President of the World Bank Group warned that “global food prices are rising to dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people around the world…who spend more than half of their income on food.” The World Bank estimates that an additional 44 million people in developing nations have been pushed into poverty since last June due to food price hikes.

But hunger is not the only threat posed by rising food prices. As vulnerable people become increasingly unable to feed themselves and their families, many are taking to the streets in protest. The Executive Director of the UN World Food Programme, Josette Sheeran, explains; “volatility on the markets can translate quickly to volatility on the streets”. For example, a 30% rise in the price of bread last September in Mozambique lead to riots which left 288 people injured and seven dead. During the food crisis of 2008, food prices played a role in anti-government protests and there were food riots across Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia. In Algeria and Egypt (the world’s largest importer of wheat) soaring food prices are said to have been a factor in the recent protests. As prices continue to rise, it is feared that food riots will spread to countries in Africa and Latin America. Indeed, Zoellick said recently in the Financial Times that “rising [food] prices are re-emerging as a threat to global growth and social stability”. Admittedly, a return to the crisis of 2008 is not yet upon us, says Sgustafson from the Food Security Portal; there is still sufficient production and reserves of wheat and rice, and the price of oil has still not reached the peak of 2008. The oil price has a direct impact on food prices in several ways; it directly raises the cost of production, processing and distribution in system that is heavily reliant on energy intensive inputs. It also makes the use of food crops as biofuels more financially attractive. But, as Abbassian warned the Guardian earlier this month, given the possibility of further harvest failures “there is still room for prices to go up much higher.”

Worryingly, the current trends in food prices might be a glimpse of what lies ahead. David Murran, chief investment officer at the London-based venture capital firm Emergent Asset Management, recently told Reuters; “The world is still in denial about food prices... If you look at demographics, if you look at production, if you look at the impact of climate change, then we are only at the beginning of this.” Indeed, the global population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, and it is estimated that food production will have to rise by 70% to meet this demand. But given the rising demand for land from other sectors, particularly the biofuel industry, it seems likely that agriculture will have to meet these demands without significant increase in land use.

But whilst an explosion of demand is forecasted, agriculture has been eroding the very ecological systems on which it will increasingly depend. Agriculture is a very significant contributor to climate change, deforestation, pollution and biodiversity loss. According to the UNFAO, agriculture accounts for approximately 25% of the world’s human greenhouse gas emissions. According to a recent publication by the World Economic Forum, climate change in turn is likely to lead to a change in rainfall patterns, and reduce yields by up to 20% in some regions; the past year is testament to the threat such climatic disturbances pose to global food security. Furthermore, unsustainable agricultural practices in the tropics have resulted in severe soil degradation and consequent widespread land abandonment.

Water scarcities have in turn been driven by, and will continue to affect, agriculture. According to a report by the World Economic Forum, 70% of the global withdrawal of precious freshwater is attributable to agriculture. Furthermore, the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment estimates that 15-35% of current global irrigation practices are exceeding the rate of sustainable supply. Climate change, as well as competition for water from other sectors, is likely to exacerbate these water scarcities.

The global demand for meat and dairy products, which is predicted to double as incomes rise in developing economies, has been driving livestock’s significant ecological footprint. Indeed, according to the UNFAO, livestock production represents “one of the major causes of the world’s most pressing environmental problems.” These include climate change, loss of biodiversity, land degradation, pollution and deforestation. For example, 70% of deforestation in the Amazon can be attributed to livestock grazing, with much of the remaining land used for feed production. Furthermore, greenhouse gas emissions from livestock represent 18% of total global anthropogenic emissions, greater than that from the transport sector.

So what is to be done? According to the World Bank, immediate measures to address the current food price surge should include expanding safety nets of food provisions for the most vulnerable countries, and avoiding food export restrictions. In the long term, huge investments into agriculture will be required, along with the development of less food and land intensive biofuels. As seen by the recent hikes in global food prices, climatic disturbances can cause massive disruptions to global food security; adaptation to climate change was therefore cited as an urgent priority.

The action of consumers will also be critical. For example, a report by the UNFAO has highlighted that, both commercially and politically, consumers were likely to be the main driver “to push the livestock sector into more sustainable forms.” The imperative for a sustainable global agricultural system is not just environmental or moral. As demonstrated by the recent riots in Africa, the issue of food security threatens the very political stability of nations. With this in mind it is perhaps timely that the issue of food prices has been put firmly on the G20 agenda for this year; France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy said,“Food riots in the poorest countries have a very unfavorable effect on global economic growth.” The need for widespread action is urgent and compelling. As Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the UN remarked in his address to the High-Level meeting on Food Security for All in 2009, “world poverty cannot be reduced without improvements in agriculture and food systems”. But the scale of action required necessitates a level of international and cross-sector collaboration that is as yet unprecedented.

Reforming the global food system is “one of the greatest challenges of our generation” says the World Economic Forum, but it is also, it argues, “achievable”. Will global leaders, businesses, academics and civil society rise to this challenge and deliver action on this fundamental issue? Let us hope so, because “words will not feed the world.”