All around the world, elections

Americans have chosen the man to lead them for the next four years. China is easing its way to a new leadership. How are other countries doing?

Jordan

23 January 2013

In reaction to public discontent and pressure for reform, King Abdullah dissolved parliament in October, calling for early elections. The new caretaker cabinet is the fifth cabinet since the Arab Spring started. Jordan has so far avoided protests on the same scale as Libya or Egypt.

Tensions are rising as the need for reform becomes clearer. The Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic Action Front have declared that unless the electoral system in changed, they may boycott the polls. The current system is unbalanced. 60% of the population is of Palestinian origin and vastly underrepresented, with little political power. The opposition demands a parliament where half the seats are allocated to party lists compared to just over a quarter now. The public reaction to this election will be crucial for Jordan’s future. Some observers are already arguing that this is the beginning of the Jordanian Spring.

Zimbabwe

March 2013 (tbc)

Zimbabwe has an important year coming up: the population will have to vote in a referendum for a new constitution and in the presidential election. Yet, there is one major concern: money. The finance minister has said that the country simply cannot afford to hold the elections, estimating their total cost at 129 USD. President Mugabe has already successfully argued to have three by-elections postponed, saving the state 38m USD. Foreign bodies like the EU and the IMF are being appealed to for funds.

Other than money, the date of the election is very much debated within the country. Robert Mugabe, current president, is pushing for March 2013. The opposition claims the election is being rushed and holding it so soon is “unrealistic”. Moreover, Mugabe and his party have their reasons to open the polls sooner rather than later. The change is constitution must go through before the presidential election. At the moment, the two main parties have not come to agreement. Early elections could force the hand of the opposition. Mugabe is also doing well, popularity-wise. There is a feeling that he has good chances of winning the coming vote. His party is also pressed for time. At age 84 and following rumours of ill health, there are concerns that Mugabe might not last long enough for an election later rather than sooner.

One last fear remains: a repeat of the violence that followed the last presidential elections in 2008. Morgan Tsvangirai, candidate for the opposition, decided to pull out days before the vote, alluding to violence against his supporters.

Afghanistan

5 April 2014

In 18 months, Afghan voters will elect their first new president since 2001. Hamid Karzai was nominated as leader, and then won two successive elections. The constitution currently in place prevents him from running for a third term.

These elections come at a crucial time for Afghanistan. By December 2014, the NATO mission will come to an end and most foreign troops will have left the country. It is unlikely that the major security issues that afflict the country will have been dealt with by then. The Taliban remain strong in some areas and little dialogue has been established between the fundamentalist movement and the state. Without communication, a peaceful resolution of the conflict is going to be difficult.

There are also concerns over election fraud and violence. In the previous elections, only 33% of registered voters went to the polls and 18% of those ballots were classed as invalid, in what has been perceived as a move to favour the incumbent and successfully re-elected president