“Bling-Bling” or “Flamby”?

Five years have passed since the last presidential elections took place in France in 2007, which saw the centre-right populist Nicolas Sarkozy beat the centre-left Ségolène Royal to become the sixth president of the Fifth Republic. The presidency of France is up for grabs once again and will be contested in two rounds on 22 April and 6 May. In 1981, the French people chose left over right and booted out the unpopular incumbent. It is not unrealistic to think that we could see a replay of this unusual situation in the upcoming elections.

François Hollande, the centre-left Socialist Party presidential candidate, has been ahead in the polls for the past five months. Hollande’s ideas appeal to many in France, but critics point out that he has never held government office and doesn’t possess the charisma a president should exhibit. In his manifesto, he vows to introduce higher tax rates for high earners, scrap tax breaks and create 60,000 new teaching posts. In February he proposed a 75% marginal tax rate on incomes above 1,000,000 euros, which is higher than Sweden’s top marginal tax rate. This was a bold step and a change from his earlier proposed marginal tax rate of 45% on incomes above 150,000 euros. In January he announced, “My true adversary does not have a name, a face, or a party. He never puts forward his candidacy, but nevertheless he governs. My true adversary is the world of finance.”

Shortly after the February tax proposal, Hollande visited London, where he sought to rally the support of the 300,000-strong expatriate French community residing in the British capital, the majority of whom voted for Nicolas Sarkozy five years ago. He met with Labour leader Ed Miliband and the shadow cabinet and gave a speech at King’s College to supporters and students. David Cameron, however, turned down his request for a meeting.

The British Prime Minister has made it clear that he supports the incumbent president – in an interview with Le Figaro he called him “a brave politician’” and stated that “Nicolas Sarkozy has my support, I say it clearly”. The presidential candidate came under attack during his five-year term for his perceived immodesty and flamboyant lifestyle, leading to the moniker ‘bling bling president’. Some think that he used his private life to strategically divert media attention from political issues, for example when he announced his divorce from longtime wife Cécilia on the same day as one of the first strikes against his reform program unfolded.

His merits include pushing through economic reforms in the wake of the financial crisis and an assertive foreign policy. He led the successful military intervention in Libya and strengthened relations with other European countries, in particular with Great Britain – on military relations and collaboration on civil nuclear energy. The dynamic duo of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, known as ‘Merkozy’, tackled the Eurozone crisis with zeal. Merkel said earlier this year that “I support Nicolas Sarkozy across the line as we belong to friendly (political) parties”.

Although Cameron and Merkel have backed the French president’s re-election bid, it is the French people who get to decide whether he can stay or not. François Hollande is not the only opponent in the first round. Marine Le Pen, president of the right-wing National Front, announced on Tuesday that she had secured the backing of 500 elected officials, required to be able to stand in the presidential race. She is popular – according to an ifop poll 16% of French people support her, which makes her the third horse in the race. She finds support among traditionally rightwing voters and increasingly among the unemployed, who support her anti-immigration, Eurosceptic and protectionist policies. The National Front’s appeal has increased, owing to the current economic crisis and the softer image projected by a young and polished Marine Le Pen.

The other presidential candidates include François Bayrou of the centrist Democratic Movement, who came third in the first round in 2007 – he is now fourth in the ifop poll with 13% of French people intending to vote for him in the first round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a left-wing candidate who has been polling 10% support. He was originally a member of the Socialist Party, but broke away and founded his own party Front de Gauche (Left Front) in 2008.

On Tuesday, after five months in the lead for François Hollande, polls indicated a reversal of fortunes for the first round, with 28.5% of French people supporting Nicolas Sarkozy and 27% supporting François Hollande – only last week the situation was the other way round. The polls give Hollande a comfortable lead for the second round.

Nicolas Sarkozy attended a mass rally this week where he announced that the Schengen treaty that permits free movement of people between European states had to be renegotiated, otherwise he would pull out of it. He also proclaimed a protectionist ‘Buy European Law’. This can be seen as trying to win back votes from Le Pen supporters. This could lie behind the bump in support seen in Tuesday’s ifop poll. He is not one to cede to triumphalism, at least not yet.

The opinions of students are, however, varied. One Imperial student I talked to is not enthused by this year’s presidential campaign and complains that ‘France is going straight into a recession and they are debating on whether the meat in supermarkets is halal or not’. He says the solution is to see through and continue with the policies introduced by Sarkozy – here he emphasizes that he doesn’t approve of Sarkozy – and is afraid that the election will effectively amount to a referendum on Sarkozy and not the result of a battle of ideas. Another French student is considering voting for Hollande and approves of his support for small and medium enterprises, which she says would promote innovation, and above all is wooed by the theme of social justice in his campaign.