Big Headlines & Little Englanders

Though everyone seems to be resigned to the Coalition trundling along to 2015, there’s still a bite to British (though perhaps more specifically English) politics. It’s been a tumultuous month, with waves of Tory rebellion unsettling David Cameron and the guffawing face of Farage barely off the front pages.

From Eastleigh to the Third of May

The focus of all the noise is a newly buoyant UKIP, having jumped 6-8 points in opinion polls in the last couple of weeks after some years bubbling around 10% support. The sudden surge came just as English voters prepared to go to the polls and elect their district and county councillors, and appeared to be more than borne out; UKIP secured some 23% of the vote, gaining 139 councillors and splitting majorities in traditional Conservative heartlands such as Kent and Lincolnshire.

The trouble began in March, in the by-election held following Chris Huhne’s sentencing over swapping speeding points. Eastleigh, nestled in the county of Hampshire, has been a Lib-Dem seat since ‘94, with the bulk of the vote split between the two Coalition partners. But, a bullish UKIP turned the tables, cutting swathes out of the Lib-Dem and Tory vote to soar into second place, some 24 points higher than their result in 2010.

Despite Eastleigh being fought overwhelmingly on local concerns, it prompted a bout of back-bench grumbling within the Conservatives that has kept UKIP on the front pages for weeks. As the murmurs of dissent seep further up the party, every article speculates on attempts to woo voters; the Tories and the British press seem to be doing UKIP’s work for them.

At the heart of the unrest is Europe, something Cameron hoped to have laid to rest in January with a promised referendum. And yet, while Eastleigh’s UKIP supporters spoke of fears about immigration and unemployment, the EU question seemed curiously absent. Polling from IPSOS Mori reveals it’s in fact only the 5th most important issue to a UKIP voter, well behind other factors. But, while Cameron did offer words on being tough on crime in the run up to the local elections, it was all but drowned out amidst the EU squabbles.

4 Party Politics?

As the results rolled in, the media commentariat were quick to pronounce the arrival of ‘4 Party Politics’ to the UK; once again, it seemed people were vying to make UKIP’s PR team redundant. Because, away from the press and the Conservative rebels fanning the flames, the actual hard data from the local elections doesn’t support such a statement.

For one, these were English elections. In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland 4 party politics has long been a reality. What’s more, in Scotland and Northern Ireland, UKIP’s poll performance is poor to nonexistent. Just last week Farage found himself surrounded by an antagonistic crowd in Edinburgh, who were quick to dismiss his accusations of being “Anti-English”, insisting they were protesting his “Bigoted, English Nationalism”.

Then there’s the results themselves. Whereas their overall performance, gaining around a quarter of the vote, is certainly significant, the council by council breakdown reveals a much more fractured picture.

Rural English counties are a long standing Tory heartland; even in the north of England, councils are historically split with ‘No Overall Control’ by a single party. In these contested Northern counties, UKIP registered some 2 new councillors out of433 up for election. In the west Midlands, too, gains were modest; 2 seats here, 6 there.

It was in the east Midlands and South that UKIP made a significant showing, edging into Conservative majorities and, in places such as Norfolk and Lincolnshire, pulling enough councillors to nudge the county into ‘No Overall Control’.

So, the overall picture given by the data is UKIP edging into councils across England, often where they previously had no councillors whatsoever, and in a few regions becoming a significant opposition. And yet, when considering the significance of all this we have to remember that these elections are only in rural England, in Tory heartlands.

The seats UKIP won were leached away from the Conservatives; in more Labour leaning counties, UKIP made no appearance whatsoever. In many regions, Labour also increased its share of councillors. And in the South Shield’s by-election, triggered by David Miliband’s resignation and held on the same day, the UKIP surge was driven by huge cuts into the Coalition parties, with Labour’s vote share barely dented.

Bursting the Bubble

The South Shields result in particular gives a picture of the reality of the UKIP position. Their appearance in the local elections is significant, but it does not translate into a party on the verge of entering Westminster. Pulling predominantly from dissatisfied Tory voters, UKIP hasn’t so much surged as poked its nose in, doubtless benefiting from the free publicity afforded by the Conservative rebellion.

The rise of Nigel Farage cannot be ignored; unlike, for example, the Green party, UKIP has demonstrated a surprisingly broad reach. However, a more sober analysis is called for. UKIP’s gains are tied to a wider debate long overdue in British politics, considering the rise of the ‘Political Class’ and its estrangement from the majority of British society. This question cannot be ignored, but also cannot be addressed by a London-centric media keeping Farage’s face in the public eye.