FELIX steps out onto the red carpet

Best Picture

All signs point to this going to_The Revenant_, and it’s a pity really. I found it perhaps one of the dullest, uninspiring, hollow films I’ve seen in recent memory; while in the cinema it may seem like a real journey, but looking back you are hit with the realisation that the film actually says nothing of interest or note. Spotlight could be a dark horse, as could The Big Short, but really I feel like the award would serve the film community best by going to Mad Max: Fury Road. An inventive, high-octane, perfectly-balanced film, Fury Road creates a world filled with improbable characters and highly-detailed ecosystems and after the credits roll you wish you could stay longer – surely the mark of a great film. It would also help break the drama homogeny that has consumed the Academy, showing us that an action film can still have great merit.

Will Win: The Revenant Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Director

It looks like Iñaritu will win this award for the second year in the row for his work behind the camera in The Revenant. Really it would be no surprise: Academy voters enjoy it when things are spelled out for them, and The Revenant is so stuffed full of technically impressive shots that voters can sleep easy knowing there is indeed someone giving the film direction. However, I prefer those whose work is a little less obvious; I think it takes much more skill to create a tightly controlled drama, and (glossing over the outrage that Todd Haynes wasn’t nominated) therefore I think the award should go to Lenny Abrahamson. Not only does he delicately handle the brutal subject matter of sexual abuse story Room, but he also ekes out two of the most genuine performances in recent years, from Brie Larson as Ma, and the stunning, revolutionary Jacob Tremblay as Jack.

Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) Should Win: Lenny Abrahamson (Room)

Best Actor

God, this is a bad year for actors. Following on from his win last year, Eddie Redmayne put in an offensively affected performance in The Danish Girl, meaning real-life trans pioneer Lili Elbe had no resemblance to any human being I have ever met. Similarly, Bryan Cranston portrayed Dalton Trumbo as a collection of bizarre tics given human form, using a voice that suggested toothache. Matt Damon was adequate in The Martian, but for a film that is basically centred completely around him, he made very little impact. I haven’t seen Steve Jobs, so I can’t comment on Michael Fassbender, but I don’t know if it could be worse than the others. All signs point to this award going to Leonardo DiCaprio for his role as grizzled survivalist Hugh Glass, showing that to win an award you don’t need to show nuance or skill, just a willingness to grunt a lot and eat bear liver on screen.

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) Should Win: Nobody

Best Actress

In direct contrast to the offerings on display in the Best Actor category, I can’t remember a year when the Best Actress race has been stuffed with such fantastic performances. Out in front for me are Charlotte Rampling, for her devastating turn in 45 Years, Cate Blanchett, who formed the foundation of Carol, and Brie Larson, for her stunningly affecting performance as abuse survivor in Room. While Saoirse Ronan was charming in Brooklyn, and J-Law was bolshie in Joy, neither of them can match the others in terms of the power of their performance. Smart money is on Larson to win on the night, and though I will be happy for her, deep down I feel Blanchett outstripped all competition with her nuanced, controlled performance as Carol Aird.

Will Win: Brie Laron (Room) Should Win: Cate Blanchett (Carol)

Best Supporting Actor

Maybe it’s the theatre snob in me, but I would love it if Mark Rylance takes home the award. Legendary for his theatre work, not least as artistic director of The Globe, Rylance’s performance in Bridge of Spies is magnificent, and recognition would show the worlds of film and theatre are not as distinct as people think. As Soviet spy Rudolf Abel, Rylance brings a sense of deadpan humour in his controlled performance, and is the best thing in Bridge of Spies. I don’t think Tom Hardy’s performance in The Revenant was worth shouting about, and similarly Christian Bale’s nomination for his blunt treatment of hedge funder Michael Burry is baffling. Mark Ruffalo could be a possibility, given his outburst of energy in Spotlight, but ultimately I think Sylvester Stallone will nab it, less for his turn in Creed, but more for recognition of his decades of work.

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed) Should Win: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress

Bookies have Kate Winslet down as the likely winner, following her performance in Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs, during which – dodgy Polish accent aside – she showed off her powerful expressiveness. The dark horse of the race could be Alicia Vikander, who acted Eddie Redmayne into a corner in The Danish Girl. Jennifer Jason Leigh is unlikely to get the nod, although The Hateful Eight marks a welcome resurgence in her career. Similarly, Rachel McAdams was possibly the best actor in Spotlight, but probably won’t hold up to the others. For me, Rooney Mara deserves to take home the award for creating the complex, emotionally-layered Therese Belivet in Carol; unfortunately, that role lacked bombastic moments or hysterical outbursts, and therefore will be overlooked by the Academy.

Will Win: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) Should Win: Rooney Mara (Carol)

Best Original Screnplay

Out of the five nominees for this award, only two have come up with truly inventive ideas: Ex Machina and Inside Out both tell completely original tales, one looking to our childhood past, the other to a potential future. The others all take on real-life happenings: Cold War counter-intelligence swapping in Bridge of Spies; the Catholic church molestation scandal in Spotlight; and the rise and fall of N.W.A. in Straight Outta Compton. However, while it is tricky creating something out of nothing, it is arguably more difficult to tackle a historical event and afford it the required gravitas and respect. This is exactly what Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer have done with Spotlight, which manages to present an immensely complex and controversial topic without a sense of dumbing things down for the audience.

Will Win: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer (Spotlight) Should Win: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer (Spotlight)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Pity the voters for this award; few Academy voters actually watch the films nominated, let alone go through the hassle of reading the books they were based on, and this means that the skill of many brilliant screenwriters has not been recognised. Out of the last five awards, four have gone to films based on non-fiction books, perhaps reflecting the difficulty tackling such subject matter can pose when compared to pieces of fiction. As such, it is likely that The Big Short will win, and while the screenwriters’ effort to make such an elephantine topic as the housing collapse accessible in an 120-minute film is admirable, I would love to see the award go to Phyllis Nagy for her pitch-perfect adaptation of Patricia Highsmith’s The Price of Salt, which retains all the brittle sharpness of the original text, and is the most faithful adaptation I have possibly ever seen.

Will Win: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph (The Big Short) Should Win: Phyllis Nagy (Carol)

Best Documentary

I know people say let bygones be bygones, but I can’t help feel that this year’s award should go to The Look of Silence, if only to compensate director Daniel Oppenheimer for the fact that two years ago his absolutely mind-blowing documentary The Act of Killing lost out to 20 Feet From Stardom, a documentary about backing singers. The Look of Silence may not be as powerful as his last film, but history calls for reparations. Ultimately, however, the award is likely to go to Amy, Asif Kapadia’s portrait of Amy Winehouse, whose descent and death is played out in graphic detail. Whilst the film relies on footage obtained by the paparazzi who arguably helped drive Winehouse to her death, and its voyeuristic feel makes you feel complicit in her addiction and downfall, Amy would be a worthy winner.

Will Win: Amy Should Win: The Look of Silence

Best Animated Feature

Now, I hear Anomalisa is supposed to be brilliant. It’s not out until next month in the UK, but the buzz around it is that it’s a subtle, nuanced, beautiful piece of work – which means that it will undoubtedly lose at the Academy Awards. Luckily, it seems that the award will go to Inside Out, which would be a completely worthy winner. Taking a look at the interior life of a child going through a rough patch, Inside Out connects us with our childhood memories, managing to communicate vastly complex psychological and emotional concepts with an ease that belies its ingenuity. Inside Out marks perhaps a return to form for Pixar, which is joyful news in and of itself. Oh, and it made me weep like a baby 10,000 feet above the Atlantic, glass of plane wine clutched in my hand. Make of that what you will.

Will Win: Inside Out Should Win: Inside Out

Best Original Score

All signs point towards Ennio Morricone winning this for his scoring of Tarantino’s Western The Hateful Eight, and why not – it’s a wonderful piece of work, managing to be stirring, exciting, but never overbearing. You might accuse Morricone of ripping off tropes of Western music, but he pretty much invented them. Star Wars has its usual John Williams treatment, but does he really need a sixth Oscar? You’re getting greedy John. Similarly, Bridge of Spies has a perfectly perfunctory score from Thomas Newman, all swelling strings, but any Cold War film that doesn’t make use of Nena’s ‘99 Luftballons’ is dead to me (I know it was set decades before Nena released this banger, but really, does that matter? No. The answer’s no.) However, Carol-lover that I am, I would love for this to go to Carter Burwell, for his delicate compositions, which complement the tightly controlled drama.

Will Win: Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight) Should Win: Carter Burwell (Carol)

Best Cinematography

Acinematographer can make or break a film – and yet the role is often overlooked by cinema-goers. This year the award will inevitably go to Emmanuel Lubezki for the third year in a row, for The Revenant – it’s probably fair, since the scenic shots are by far the best thing in the film. Vittorio Storaro does equally good work in The Hateful Eight, although the interior shots means he can’t show off his chops; and in Mad Max John Seale takes us through the entire colour spectrum, from blistering reds to cooling blues. However, I think shooting a beautiful film is easier when you already have natural beauty in front of you; it takes something more to take a city street, and capture the urban magic through the grime. And that’s why I think Edward Lachman should win, for his sensuous portrayal of NYC, heavily influenced by Saul Leiter’s masterful photography.

Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant) Should Win: Edward Lachman (Carol)