The case for better career guidance

Amidst the economic woes of the past decade in Europe, the issue of job security has inconspicuously slipped out of the British public’s mind and the speeches in Westminster. The staggering two-figure unemployment rates of the 1980s are now hardly more than an unpleasant memory. Ironically, the UK is now faced with the opposite problem: while it boasts an unemployment rate of 4.4%, comfortably below the OECD average, economic growth is hindered by a shortage of workers. About one in ten available jobs country-wide does not find a suitable candidate. This overall value hides great sector-specific discrepancies, with vacancies notably reaching a whopping 18% in manufacturing, according to a recent study by Statistica.

This crisis would be more accurately labelled as skills shortage, as the pool of Britons seeking employment is theoretically sufficient to satisfy all offers. While wage expectations factor in too, a mismatch between the skills required and those present on the job market still account for about a third of the vacancies, disproportionately affecting small businesses.

On the other hand, many recent graduates are faced with low demand in their professional area, and struggle to jump unto the jobs market without a reconversion or a serious scaling down of their wage ambitions. The cost of undergraduate education in the UK, which is now the highest in the rich world, makes those situations more dire than in other European countries. The yearly invoice received by a home student in a British university could cover 50 years of education in a French university. As such, most degrees that don’t prepare for high-income jobs have an appalling low return on investment.

Excellence is the field of humanities and arts remains valued in the UK, a legacy of the times when the country’s decision-makers were better versed in Greek poetry than in data analysis. But today, the visibility of highly successful public figures with such backgrounds, like former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, stem mostly from survivor bias. In fact, only about half of male undergraduates will get a positive economic return on their English or Philosophy degree, whereas Maths or Computing degrees are virtually always a good investment.

This would pose little concern if students enjoyed their degree and career more, but the levels of student satisfaction correlate with the environment of study much more than with the choice of a university major. A more realistic and careers-targeted approach to course guidance is thus required. Naturally, secondary-school students which a genuine passione for liberal arts shouldn’t be discouraged from pursuing this path. But it is a shame that those who feel daunted by STEM, or aren’t yet motivated by any specific subject, too often follow through by default. Reconversions to any line of work are much easier for those who already possess employable skills.

Ensuring the offer and demand for employment meet constitutes sensible policing, and is all the more beneficial in a context of fast-changing job opportunities. Brexit-induced restrictions to immigration, combined to a particularly slow recovery of workforce activity following the Covid pandemic, have caused unprecedented imbalances in the jobs market. Endowing workers with sought-after skills would be crucial in turning Britain’s GDP growth figures positive again.

That would demand an ambitious paradigm shift. Qualified blue-collar jobs are too often shunned, although they can offer hefty salaries for those with the appropriate skillset and interest, in addition to a low vulnerabiliy to AI replacement. Inspiration could be taken from countries like Germany which promote a dual education system, complementing classroom theory with work experience in partner companies. Apprenticeships there are not only facilitated by law, but a true cultural norm.

To increase economic incentive, the British government could raise the cost of degrees leading to low employment demand and use the funds to create learning paths targeted to industries with the most alarming recruitment issues. Last month, Prime Minister Keith Starmer has launched a new program, dubbed Skills England, that aims at “fir[ing] up the training of all UK workers”, in a promising first step.  That alone remains unlikely to suffice. A country still so permeated with the childhood dream of Harry Potter’s Sorting Hat should not shy away from more assertive career guidance.