Residents of Rome flee earthquake predicted in 1915...

Urban myth or not, rumours of a possible earthquake predicted over 90 years ago sparked mass panic in Rome this week, with residents vacating the Eternal City for fear of a large tremor. The prediction was made in 1915 by Italian-born seismologist Raffaele Bendandi, who forecast Rome would be devastated by a quake on 11 May 2011. Despite officials stressing the unpredictable nature of quakes, hundreds of workers requested leave and families chose to keep their children away from school amid fears that Bendandi’s forecast may become true.

With scenes of devastation left by the recent earthquake in Japan and memories of the 2009 quake in the Italian city of L’Aquila, the concerns circulating amongst Italians this week were understandable. A prediction made by Bendandi has become true in the past. In 1923, he forecast an earthquake would strike on January 2 the following year. On 4 January 1924, the Italian province of Le Marche was struck by a quake.

Despite his apparent knack for forecasting, sceptics this week downplayed Bendandi’s prediction of an earthquake in Rome, saying they had no record of a specific date and place. The potential for predicting earthquakes has been the focus of much controversy. Bernandi based his quake predictions on the movement of the moon, sun and planets, yet some scientists argue it is impossible for us to predict such an event, namely because they often tend to strike in a random fashion, without warning. To date, there are no examples of forecasts that have successfully predicted the exact date, place and size of an earthquake. Felix was still waiting for news of a quake at the time of print...