Fighting for Florida

By the end of the year, Americans will have elected a new President. However, with no clear majority in public opinion for either the Democrats or the Republicans, who will become the next Leader of the Free World? Who will answer the call from visiting extra-terrestrial dignitaries?

The main focus of the country is the Republican Nominee election. So far, having lost such luminaries as Michelle Bachmann, billionaire Donald Trump, Jon Huntsman, and former pizza boss Herman Cain, the list of competitors has been whittled down to Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.

The current Republican nominees are being put through their paces by a number of Primaries and Caucuses, events where Republican voters in each state can put their vote behind a nominee of their choosing. Each extra notch on their belts brings a contender one step closer to becoming the Republican Presidential candidate.

Since the start of 2012 there have been three primaries in the states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina in which the candidates have frantically jostled for the position of Top Dog. Starting off the fight the caucus in Iowa was held on January 3 with a narrow eight-vote victory going to former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney after a vote re-count. The next battle was fought at the New Hampshire primary, where Mitt Romney took a double-digit lead in votes, emerging as a clear leader in the contest. Upon winning, Romney spread a message of party unity, hoping to end personal attacks between nominees. At the time Mitt Romney was seen as the top candidate for the position of Republican nominee and it was seen as a foregone conclusion that he would dominate further Primaries. However, this changed after the re-count in Iowa and a shocking thirteen-point victory by Newt Gingrich in the more socially and religiously conservative state of South Carolina. With three primaries producing three separate winners, the Republican Presidential nominee elections have become a free for all.

So, what now? The next primary will be held in Florida on January 31. This election might become a turning point in the race, with the possibility of securing the prominence of the latest primary winner Newt Gingrich, a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, or giving more ground to Mitt Romney who has recently suffered public embarrassment for being reluctant to reveal his most recent tax returns to the public. It could also give Rick Santorum or Congressman Ron Paul a chance to get a foot in the door.

Rick Santorum is trying to gain momentum. After being declared the winner of the Iowa caucus, he has struggled to gain a larger support base, only receiving 17% of votes in the recent South Carolina primary. Along with trying to discredit the electability of the two most popular candidates, he sells himself as a conservative who’s heart beats in time with the Republican party. However, he has neither the money of his two leading competitors, nor a prominent organisation in the state to which he can ally himself. Finally, with Florida lacking strong conservative or evangelical Christian bases, his hard approach and conservative anti-abortion and anti-homosexual agenda may not gain many additional votes.

Congressman Ron Paul has had a difficult time in the nominations so far. Despite a stable and sensible approach, a lack of common ground with the main line of the Grand Old Party means that he has had a hard time gaining votes in the Primary elections. In a strategic move, Paul has decided to skip the Florida primary and concentrate his attentions elsewhere.

Mitt Romney’s defeat in South Carolina has shaken some of his support in the party. Some are shocked that he was unable to successfully parry attacks on his business past, finding it hard to understand how he could not shield himself from attacks on a history that epitomises some of the strongest principles in the capitalist-loving Republican Party. However Romney has started to fight back, having released his tax returns for the last few years on Tuesday and also preaching a new message of tax reduction for the masses. He also has a secret weapon; his campaign staff in Florida have already been running a marathon for the last fortnight, having already spent $7m on advertising in the state. They have publicised his causes so ruthlessly that as the other candidates have turned to Florida they have faced a state where 197,271 early and absentee votes have been counted with Romney leading in the polls on Monday. However, there is some discontentment with Romney’s tax returns, after admitting that he expects to have paid a mean of 14.6% tax on his income over the last two years. Some consider him an out of touch millionaire, who as President would be unable to understand the needs of the general populace. There is also some confusion over his position at private equity firm Bain Capital, both issues causing some to doubt Romney’s economic credibility. If Mitt Romney wants to become his party’s darling, he will have to pull of a stellar performance in the Florida primaries and show the Republicans that he is a strong leader and a far superior contender.

Newt Gingrich has shown twice that he can revive a flagging campaign, most recently snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in South Carolina. However his most pressing needs as he looks towards Florida are to assert his position on a number of subjects as well as weathering a host of personal attacks. Discrediting opponents is a key part of American elections, with this being no different. Newt Gingrich has a strong competitor in Mitt Romney and has already used a $5m donation to his “super Political Action Committee” to launch a slew of advertisements ripping into Romney’s perceived weaknesses. However after three marriages (involving two extramarital affairs) and a Speakership in the House of Representatives ending in resignation and a fine by the ethics committee, Gingrich has many issues that could be of political benefit to his opponents and does little to endear him to social and religious conservatives. While decried as a balloon full of hot air and a poor team player by his opponents, Newt Gingrich is trying to reinvent himself as a reformed, honest man who plans to de-throne President Obama and heal America. However Gingrich has some demons to face in Florida. As a former advisor to the bank Freddie Mac, an institution credited with a key part in the real estate crash in Florida, he will have a hard time gaining favour from the home crowd.

The race for the Republican Presidential Nominee promises to be long and arduous, finishing with the selection of a single candidate at the Republican National Convention on August 27. However, as we approach February and the Florida primary the Republican Party is fractured and undecided, with many contemplating whether to vote for the candidate they prefer or bite the bullet and vote for a candidate they despise but whom they feel will have the best chance of ousting Obama.

And while the Republicans squabble over who will be team captain, things are much calmer in the Democrat camp. With many wary of the credibility of any chosen Republican nominee, the President is having a slightly less publicised sting campaign. On Tuesday he gave his State of the Union address where he promised a blueprint for long term economic stability in America and pushed for an increase in taxes for the wealthy as well as measures to stimulate job growth and education.