Felix Film’s guide to the Oscars – who will win, who should win, and who’ve been left out in the cold

Oscars season is upon as! And, as is traditional, Felix are here to give you a rundown of what will win on the night, as well as what should win, and who didn't even get a nomination:

Best Picture

It’s been a complicated awards season. Call Me by Your Name started out in the lead when it picked up the Gotham Award back in November, but next month the National Board of Review of Motion Pictures decided to award their top prize to Steven Spielberg’s The Post. Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird and Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri then moved to the front of the pack when both picked up Best Film at the Golden Globes, and since then, Three Billboards has gone on to win at the SAG awards and the BAFTAs, cementing it as the frontrunner in the race. While Lady Bird and Get Out remain dark horses in the race, I’d say the only film with a realistic chance of dethroning Three Billboards is Guillermo Del Toro’s The Shape of Water. It should be an exciting night. Mark Aduol

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Should win: The Shape of Water Shoulda been a contender: The Handmaiden

Best Director

This year’s Best Director race has been one of the most fiercely competitive in recent memory, yet it appears Guillermo del Toro will come out on top for his swirling fantasy romance The Shape of Water. It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Del Toro’s direction is superb, yet the most perfect work comes from our current greatest director, Paul Thomas Anderson, in his swirlier, more fantastical, and more romantic Phantom Thread. Where Del Toro is inspired, Anderson is flawless, and so should come out on top. Alas this award will continue to evade him as it did the likes of Kubrick and Hitchcock – there’s no shame in that. The likes of Luca Guadagnino, Denis Villeneuve, and Sean Baker can rightly feel aggrieved at being shut out by lesser works by debutants Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele. Ashley Luckyram

Will win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) Shoulda been a contender: Luca Guadagnino (Call My by Your Name)

Best Actor

When people make lists of great actors who have never won an Oscar, Gary Oldman is no doubt a regular feature. And that is firmly where he should remain. Caked in make-up, Oldman bellows his way through Joe Wright’s clunky Darkest Hour in a performance a world away from his best. Meanwhile Day-Lewis reunites with Paul Thomas Anderson in Phantom Thread for the final performance of an astonishing career. The last time the two worked together resulted in one of the finest performances ever seen on screen, and once again Day-Lewis delivers the best work of the year. For his last role he wrongly beat out Joaquin Phoenix to claim a record third Best Actor trophy. For his final ever role, he should be allowed to extend that record to four. AL

Will win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) Shoulda been a contender: James Franco (The Disaster Artist)

Best Actress

It is all but guaranteed that Frances McDormand will run away with this award for her portrayal of anti-heroine, Mildred Hayes, in Martin McDonagh’s drama, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Three Billboards is told primarily through the eyes of grief-stricken mother Hayes, who serves as a vessel for McDonagh’s trademark potion of caustic wit and darkly comedic dialogue. Some have said that by juxtaposing Mildred’s superficial black humour with the inner turmoil caused by the rape and murder of her daughter, McDonagh has crafted a tonally inconsistent character. However, one could also argue that the difficulty in authentically portraying a character that is simultaneously heartbroken, vengeful, compassionate, and humorous is reason enough to award McDormand the Oscar. MD

Will win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards) Should win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards) Shoulda been a contender: Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)

Best Supporting Actor

If there’s one injustice we should be upset about in this day and age, it is without a doubt the exclusion of Michael Stuhlbarg in the Best Supporting Actor category. ‘For what film?’ I hear you ask – well this is the question. Stuhlbarg has been in three of the stand-out films this year, and for each he could deserve a nomination; but it was in Call Me by Your Name he shone brightest, delivering the most memorable moment of a beautiful film. If there were any justice in the world, he would be nominated, and Willem Dafoe would win for his performance in Sean Baker’s The Florida Project. But the world is a cruel place: Woody Harrelson is on the nominations list, Sam Rockwell will take home the statue, and there is no God. Fred Fyles

Will win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards) Should win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) Shoulda been a contender: Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Supporting Actress

As with the other acting categories, the choice for Best Supporting Actress seems apparent: odds are Allison Janney will win for her role in the black comedy biopic I, Tonya. There’s a chance, however, a different mother may win: Laurie Metcalf would make a more-than-worthy winner for her portrayal of Marion McPherson, the emotional centrepiece of Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird. What is perhaps most heartening about this category, however, is how it is celebrating older women who are all too often written off in the film industry. She may bring the average age down, but it would have been nice to see Michelle Williams on the list, for her Katharine Hepburn-esque turn in All the Money in the World. FF

Will win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya) Should win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) Shoulda been a contender: Michelle Willams (All the Money in the World)

Best Original Screenplay

Whether creating an original screenplay or adapting a pre-existing work for the screen is harder remains an open question. What can be said for certain about all the nominees for Best Original Screenplay this year, however, is that they have all managed to create their own sense of time and place. The winner is likely to be Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – the Academy continues their long-running fixation with people saying improbably witty things very quickly. A much worthier winner would be Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird – 93 minutes of delicately crafted dialogue that pays homage to the relationship between mothers and daughters. Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread, with its stomach-turning exploration of power dynamics, is a striking omission. FF

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Should win: Lady Bird Shoulda been a contender: Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

When the nominees were announced back in January I wrote that “one could have desperately scribbled down the ingredients from the back of a bottle of Heinz tomato ketchup on a napkin five minutes before the nominations went out and still been in with a chance of an Adapted Screenplay nod”. I stand by that statement. Call Me by Your Name, from the legendary James Ivory, is the only truly outstanding work. The Academy would have done well to recognise Sofia Coppola’s steamy femme fatale reimagining of Thomas P. Cullinan’s The Beguiled over Aaron Sorkin’s unnecessarily tell-not-show Molly’s Game script. Sorkin has become the Streep of his craft, rewarded over others more deserving based on his reputation. AL

Will win: Call Me by Your Name Should win: Call Me by Your Name Shoulda been a contender: The Beguiled

Best Animated Feature

It was to be expected that once again the animation category will be underwhelming and underappreciated. With this year’s controversial rule change, allowing any member with an interest in animation to cast their votes, it is worse than ever. On the surface this may seem like a step in the right direction, but looking at the nominations this year is tragic. Loving Vincent is an amazing feat of animation, and Coco is a great movie, tugging at the heartstrings of kids and adults alike, but when they are up against John Cena and Boss Baby it just feels like the Academy are taking the piss. Now more than ever the Oscars seem out of touch with animation and although Coco is a great movie and deserves to win, Boss Baby should win just to wake the academy and the film world up and completely reform this category. Mikhail Demtchenko

Will win: Coco Should win: Coco Shoulda been a contender: Okja

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman is A Fantastic Film, with Daniela Vega spearheading what could be A Fantastic Breakthrough for trans cinema. But in this hotly contested category, it is hard to tell who will win. Going up against Palme d’Or winner The Square and Loveless, a Cannes jury favourite and bookies’ favourite, the Oscar could go any way. With 92 films submitted for this category this year, it is interesting to see how different the Oscar nominations were to the Baftas and those who didn’t make the cut. Most notably missing Angelina Jolie’s First They Killed my Father, Netflix super success Okja, and, more tragically, the absence of Bafta winner The Handmaiden, which made a strong fight for the Palme d’Or and snapped up the coveted Felix Film Best Picture award. MD

Will win: Loveless (Russia) Should win: A Fantastic Woman (Chile) Shoulda been a contender: The Handmaiden (South Korea)

Best Documentary

Last year’s O.J.: Made in America, which won the Oscar for Best Documentary, broke the mould, clocking in at over 460 minutes long. In this ceremony, however, things are largely back to normal: five documentaries, on a wide range of subjects, competing for the crown. Icarus, a fast-paced doc on the Russian Olympic doping program, is likely to be the winner. Agnès Varda and JR’s documentary Faces Places would be a more unique winner, and – given it is likely to be Varda’s last film – a worthier one. Frederick Wiseman, who was awarded an Honorary Award at last year’s ceremony, should have garnered a nomination for Ex Libris, his warm-hearted, tender portrayal of the New York Public Library system, dizzying in scope but intimate in mood. FF

Will win: Icarus Should win: Faces Places Shoulda been a contender: Ex Libris

Best Original Score

With the Hans Zimmer votes being split between Dunkirk and Bladerunner 2049 at the Baftas Alexandre Desplat managed to beat out competition to take home the award to put alongside his Golden Globe. This comes at no surprise, with Desplat’s romantic fantasy style score perfectly accenting the relationships in the movie. However the Oscars could be a different story: with only one Hans Zimmer film being nominated and the academy primed to throw their votes his direction, he may finally pick up his second oscar. There rest of the nominations are not to be trifled with either: with legend John Williams, Radiohead guitarist Jonny Greenwood, and Coen veteran Carter Burwell, this certainly is a stacked category. MD

Will win: Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk) Should win: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water) Shoulda been a contender: Oneohtrix Point Never (Good Time)