An idiot’s guide to the EU referendum

Over the course of the last UK election period and for the bulk of 2016 so far, the media and news in general has been focussed on the UK’s membership within the European Union, but what’s actually going on?

Where did the EU come from?

In essence the European Union (EU) is a group of 28 countries who all have one thing in common: they all occupy a corner of the world and have been bickering over who owns which part for thousands of years, often in quite bloody wars.

It took one big war (World War II) to finally accept that enough was enough and that some way of stopping this from happening again was needed. The EU was preceded by two other unions, the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community, as a way to tie countries together economically, making them less likely to declare war on each other, something generally regarded as a good thing.

It grew from just the founding six countries in the 1950s (Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and West Germany) adding over half a billion people and 24 official languages to reach its current membership levels. The union, once seen as a stronghold against communism, has now expanded such that it encapsulates many of the former “Eastern Bloc” countries, and almost the entirety of Europe with the notable exceptions of Switzerland, Iceland and Norway. Many countries such as Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey have applied for membership and are in the process of being considered.

And what does the EU do?

The countries within the EU pay membership fees, vote on laws in the European Parliament and citizens of these countries are part of the EU as a whole. This means that these citizens can live, work and retire in any other EU country, and can move freely from one country to another thanks to a treaty known as the Schengen Agreement.

Naturally, the countries also have to follow the laws set out by the EU’s parliament (for better or for worse) and comply with the various trade agreements, sanctions and levies imposed.

This union is also taken further in 19 of the 28 member states, who participate in the Eurozone and are linked by a single currency. They can’t decide their own monetary policies individually but the system as a whole allows for lower transaction costs and greater price transparency between member nations.

And what’s the referendum?

On June 23rd the UK is having a referendum to decide whether to stay in the EU or leave, in a sort of political hokey-cokey (except that once we’re in or out it’ll likely be for a while). If you’re over 18 and are: a British citizen living in the UK, a British citizen living abroad for less than 15 years, an EU citizen resident in the UK (as long as you only vote in European elections in the UK) or a Republic of Ireland or Commonwealth citizen (this also includes the 2 EU member states of Malta and Cyprus) and are resident in the UK, then you’re eligible to vote as long as you register before June the 7th.

Tough luck if you’re any other nationality, as even if you’re a long- term UK resident and UK taxpayer, you don’t get a vote.

From there just a simple majority is needed by one side, with no minimum turnout required.

So who’s on which side?

The debate has captured the full support of some political parties and has divided others, with the wider public split too. The SNP and Lib Dems have all their MPs supporting the Remain campaign as well as almost all Labour MPs, whereas around 130 of the 330 Conservative MPs are backing the Leave campaign, despite David Cameron throwing all his weight behind staying in the EU.

Notable dissension within the Conservative ranks has come from Boris Johnson (former Mayor of London) and Michael Gove (the current Justice Secretary). Jeremy Corbyn, once a staunch EU critic has now come out in favour of remaining, although the jury is still out as to how sincere this was. Obama also voiced his anti-Brexit stance when he was in Britain last month, while Donald Trump is unsurprisingly anti-EU. Joey Essex has yet to cast his opinion on the issue, although he is currently filming a TV show which tackles the referendum, so keep your eyes peeled for that...

Joey Essex has yet to cast his opinion on the issue

So, the debate

Both sides have been flinging statistics and counter-statistics at each other, with a huge amount of confusion ensuing. In essence, as with many things in life, there are few certainties and there is a risk in both staying in the EU, as well as leaving it. This is compounded by the lack of a definitive post-EU plan from any of the main political parties/leaders, chiefly because they’re all voting to remain. What this means is that for better or for worse, there’s very little evidence to base decisions on. There are, however, opinions and studies aplenty with which you can use to form your opinion, but nothing should taken to be a hard and fast rule.

The debate centres around a few key arguments concerning areas such as the economy, immigration and security, and further issues under these umbrellas. The economy is arguably the most important of these, with it being a case of whether membership of the EU helps or hurts UK trade deals as well as the issue of sovereignty.

While it can be said that the EU means countries are, in some cases, locked into trade deals with large, emerging markets such as China and India (with whom we may have gotten a better deal by negotiating solo) the countries that the UK does a substantial amount of trade with are EU members. This means barriers between us and them may, in the short term at least, hinder trade post-Brexit. The IMF, World Bank and OECD have issued reports advising against the UK leaving the EU, but Brexit supporters urge that on its own two feet the UK will have more autonomy to spend its taxes and implement its subsidies as it sees fit, in ways more suited to the needs of the British economy.

Uncertainty about the economy post-Brexit may cause companies to either reduce investment in the UK or take their business elsewhere entirely but, if the UK did eventually become stronger on its own the opposite could happen, with more companies choosing to expand their businesses into the UK rather than other EU member states.

The issue of the EU’s growing power, not only over policies and law, but to the point of the control of the fiscal policy of each and every country is a scenario touted by anti-EU campaigners. This scenario would be tricky without a full currency union, but the UK will always be more on the fringe of the EU if it doesn’t change to the euro from the pound. This would likely be met with great hostility since the Eurozone crisis was a large factor in the recent global recession, and was blamed for the high levels of youth unemployment in Greece and Spain.

Furthermore, the Leave campaign say that should the UK leave the EU, trade with European countries would still continue; they rely on trade with us as much as we rely on trade with them. This supposes a scenario in which the UK gets seemingly all the benefits of trade with the EU without having to pay membership fees. This is not an impossible series of events but if other countries see this they’re likely to feel cheated, leading to either them shunning the UK or opting out themselves. A domino effect of countries leaving could lead to the collapse of the EU, making trade deals a lot harder should these countries revert back to their plethora of original currencies.

Some non-EU members are instead part of the European Economic Area (EEA) such as Norway, Iceland and Switzerland (kinda) and are not subject to all the membership fees and all the regulations of the EU. This leads to slightly more freedom but no seat at the EU table deciding the laws that they nevertheless have to follow. In some cases this has worked for them, but we are a much bigger economy and one which relies on sectors other than fishing, the Northern Lights and Roger Federer, meaning it might not work out for us or it might work out even better still.

The issue surrounding security is one that is often screamed about, with both sides arguing that we would simultaneously be safer in and out of the EU. The sharing of information within the EU has been made easier by cooperation between nations, but the former head of MI6 feels that security would increase should the UK leave. This is based on allowing us to drop the European Convention on Human Rights (to allow us to deport criminals such as Abu Hamza), share information more freely with non-EU countries, as well as strengthen our borders from movement of terrorists that reside within the EU. The Convention on Human Rights is usually seen as a good thing on the whole though, and this would be unlikely to be dropped (I mean Britain did draft the original rights in the first place).

We rely on sectors other than fishing, the Northern Lights and Roger Federer

The counterargument on our borders does have a bit of a twist too, with the 20 miles of English Channel making the UK different from full Schengen (free movement) members. This extends into a treaty with France known as “Le Touquet”, in which the British border is (kinda) in France, something that may or may not disappear if we left the EU. This leads to a situation in which refugees could claim asylum in Britain as currently they have to actually step foot on the mainland to do so. Whether we should be allowing more refugees in is a whole other kettle of fish.

Other more pressing issues are present too, as the UK is likely to be pretty disliked at Eurovision should we leave, although we can’t really slip down the rankings much further anyway.

This is by no means anywhere close to being exhaustive on the debate, you need to go and research the aspects that are most important to you. One topic that might be close to home is the scientific community within Europe. Pulling out of this might constrict the opportunities you have to work abroad and make cross border research harder to complete or it may deregulate and kickstart your industry.

If you want an opinion on whether Brexit would be a good or bad move, your professional institute might be a good place to start. Imperial students have also set up two opposing campaigns, the pro-EU ICL Students 4 EU and the pro-Brexit Students for Britain, which can be found on Twitter at @Imperial4EU and @SfBImperial respectively.

What else is going on though?

The debate cannot be taken as an isolated issue, and other global political and economic issues undoubtedly cross over into the pros and cons of the EU referendum. One of the most prevalent of these has been the ongoing refugee crisis, with immigration a key point being argued by the leave camp. The arguments presented above may help or hinder this problem but there is a case to be made that the migrant issue is bigger than just the economic elements it presents and is instead an issue of morality.

The arguments around immigration and security also stretch into the recent terrorist attacks in mainland Europe, bringing the potential pitfalls of the Schengen Zone and the successes of cross border agencies such as Europol to the forefront of media coverage.

The recent referendum in Scotland has stirred up independence talks and the SNP have promised another referendum should the UK as a whole vote to leave the EU yet Scotland vote to remain. A similar promise has been touted in Northern Ireland, with the added complication of the Irish reunification debate. With the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland being the only mainland border the UK shares with the EU (putting the complex situation in Gibraltar aside) there are questions as to whether a ‘hard’ border would have to be imposed, a situation that would likely inflame relations in Ireland, a place only recently free of The Troubles.

The internal politics within the Conservative Party is another factor at play, as David Cameron has said he won’t serve a third term as PM, leaving the door open for a new leader, who could potentially be decided by the referendum. Front runners George Osborne and Boris Johnson are on opposite sides of the argument, with the “winner” likely to get a boost in the leadership race.

The upcoming election in the US may also have ripples this side of the pond too, as if, God forbid, Donald Trump were to clinch the presidency we might be negotiating in a very different world of politics. He’s pro-Brexit but who knows how much UK trade would feature in making America great again (I mean the current Secretary of State for Business and London Mayor are both of Muslim heritage and may not be willing or even able to enter the US under Trump’s proposals).

Why should I vote?

Whatever happens this is going to have effects on your everyday life, so shine your crystal balls, weigh up the risks and benefits of both sides, come to a decision and then for the love of God, vote. It’s your future. And if you don’t vote the elderly will, and they’ll be dead soon.

ICU is holding an EU debate on the 2nd of June in Skempton 164. Check Facebook for details.