RNA markers in blood predict disease progression
In a proof-of-concept study, researchers at Imperial have tested VeloCD, a bioinformatics-based method that successfully predicts illness progression and treatment efficacy using RNA markers in blood. Their research found that the test could accurately predict disease trajectories and future infection status in controlled human challenge studies for COVID-19 and influenza.
The behaviour of genes during illness produces RNA markers, patterns of which are able to reflect the cause of an illness. RNA velocity is a time-based mapping of these markers and thus can be used to predict how the illness will change.
The first and co-corresponding author of the study, Dr Claire Dunican, bioinformatician in the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London, said: “By identifying key patterns [in the blood], we can essentially predict the trajectory of illness – not just where someone is right now, but where they are going to be in next few hours or days. In practice, this could tell us whether they will get better or deteriorate, and how they might respond to treatment.”
Taking real-world data of whole-blood samples and RNA markers from studies like PERFORM, the team managed to predict the degree of illness to which an individual was likely to progress, flagging individuals most likely to deteriorate and require intensive care.
Alongside these results, the team successfully showed VeloCD’s capacity in predicting the onset of future complications in HIV-tuberculosis co-infected individuals and evaluating whether remission would be achieved after the first dose of biological therapy for inflammatory bowel disease.
The researchers have filed a patent for the method with the hope that the approach could be used as a point of care prognostics test to help clinical decision making. They are looking to develop and validate a working clinical test based on this approach, which they hope to make available in less than five years.
